Just seven months after the state election in Baden-Württemberg, the Green Party, led by Minister-President Cem Özdemir, can clearly assert itself as the strongest political force, according to a poll conducted by Infratest.
The survey, commissioned by Südwestrundfunk (SWR), “Stuttgarter Zeitung,” and “Südwest Presse,” shows a significant drop in approval for the CDU. The CDU now stands level with the AfD, which has reportedly seen considerable gains. Despite this, the Green Party and the CDU maintain the potential to form a coalition government.
Specific figures indicate the Greens at 30 percent, holding their standing from the state election in March 2026 at 30.2 percent. The CDU, a junior partner in the green-black coalition, has dipped to 23 percent. Before the March 2026 election, the party led by state chief Manuel Hagel had finished just behind the Greens with 29.7 percent. Meanwhile, the AfD has reached an all-time high in the BW trend, now sitting level with the CDU at 23 percent, up from 18.8 percent in the election.
The SPD has managed a slight improvement from its election result of 5.5 percent, rising to 7 percent. The Left Party, which narrowly missed entering the state parliament in March, is now projected to reach 6 percent. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) remains steady at 4 percent, the Liberals, who were expelled from the parliament for the first time in their home state during the recent election.
Özdemir has managed to enhance his personal standing since the green-black government began in mid-May. Fifty-eight percent of eligible voters in Baden-Württemberg are satisfied with his work, marking a seven-point increase compared to figures before the March election, when he was merely a Green top candidate. A slender third (31 percent) expresses criticism of Özdemir.
Overall, satisfaction with the state government as a whole stands at 51 percent, with 43 percent viewing it critically. This rate is comparable to the figures recorded under the previous government led by Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann (Green) shortly before the March vote. Currently, satisfaction with a state government is higher only in Schleswig-Holstein and Hamburg.
Özdemir’s popularity is also reflected in the approval rates for his party. A strong quarter of respondents trust the Greens the most to solve the state’s central problems (27 percent)-a five-point gain. Before the state election, the Greens lagged behind the CDU, which is perceived as being less competent in solutions. Only 17 percent trust the CDU to tackle the main issues of the region, a sharp decline of 13 points. The AfD remains close behind the CDU on this issue, holding steady at 16 percent.
The survey sampled a total of 1,191 people in Baden-Württemberg between October 8 and October 13, 2026.
