Climate economist Ottmar Edenhofer is entering the upcoming global climate conference in Antalya, Turkey, with tempered expectations. Speaking to Deutschlandfunk, he emphasized that a degree of realism is essential, noting that these climate conferences are not the venues for declaring massive breakthroughs. Instead, he argues that the focus should be on seriously considering how to actually contribute in a meaningful way toward meeting climate goals. He expressed skepticism that the majority of nations at the conference would agree upon concrete implementation plans, stating that this notion is unlikely to materialize.
Edenhofer suggested that what is genuinely needed is a form of “minilateralism.” This involves finding pathways between states that share similar interests and are consequently able to implement those interests collectively. He maintains that international agreements must always align with the enlightened self-interest of the countries involved, believing this approach could lead to genuine progress.
Regarding the goal set for Antalya-the agreement of an electrification target-Edenhofer acknowledged that electrification is a crucial step in decarbonization since vast sectors must be electrified. However, he also warned of a persistent danger with such target-setting: the risk that they remain entirely non-binding, existing only on paper without any reasonable framework for funding.
Instead, he proposed focused cooperation models. For example, the European Union and China should investigate areas where they can collaborate. As the two largest net importers of oil and gas, if these major economic blocs manage to reduce their imports, it would impact global market prices, potentially driving them down. Combining this effort with an electrification target, Edenhofer concluded, would be extremely beneficial.
