In response to warnings from energy economists regarding the accelerated phase-out of coal in the Rhineland region, Andreas Lenz, the CDU/CSU faction’s spokesman for economic and energy policy, emphasized that grid security takes priority. Speaking to WDR and the “Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger,” the CSU politician stated that alongside the question of affordability, guaranteeing a stable supply-meaning the availability of electricity at all times of the day and year-is critical. The Federal Network Agency continuously assesses the impact of shutting down individual power plants to ensure that supply is always guaranteed.
Lenz also pointed to the Electricity Security Act (StromVKG), which came into force this summer. This law is designed to secure the power supply even during periods of low wind (Dunkelflauten) and post-coal phase-out, and it regulates the construction of new gas power plants.
However, this political confidence is contradicted by expert economic analysis. Manuel Frondel, an energy economist at the RWI-Leibniz Institute in Essen, told WDR and the “Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger” that, in his view, the phase-out cannot succeed if there is a risk to supply security and if electricity prices continue rising. Frondel predicts that the decision to accelerate the coal exit will likely be overturned, as no one wants to risk “shortages of electricity” or “exploding electricity prices.”
A skeptical view was also voiced by Bochum energy economist Andreas Löschel, who has been leading the independent Energy Commission since 2011, which evaluates the energy transition for the federal government. Löschel noted that after the auctions for reserve gas power plants, a comprehensive re-evaluation is necessary to accurately determine the supply security situation, particularly during the winters of 2031 and 2032. Based on the current status, he believes North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) “will definitely run into problems during those two winters.”
The Federal Network Agency reported last week that NRW was awarded a capacity of 2.1 gigawatts in the first auction for new gas power plants intended to secure the energy transition. This allocated capacity represents 41 percent of the total power granted. These power stations are scheduled to be connected no later than 2031, which is one year after the planned accelerated coal exit.
