An analysis by the Institute of the German Economy (IW Köln), reported by “Funke-Mediengruppe” newspapers, reveals that the number of skilled workers subject to social security in the eastern federal states would be approximately 191,000-or 5.3 percent-lower without immigration from the EU and third countries.
According to the analysis, the workforce of German citizens has been declining since 2019. Although EU citizens continue to contribute positively, this contribution is notably decreasing. Meanwhile, third-country nationals are becoming increasingly crucial. Fabian Semsarha, a skilled labor expert at IW, told the papers that while migration from the EU long dampened demographic change in the labor market, this source is now running dry. Consequently, he stated that stabilizing the skilled labor supply without third-country workers will be almost impossible in the future.
Currently, nearly 160,000 international skilled workers are employed in shortage professions. Their significance is particularly pronounced in logistics, healthcare, and gastronomy. Close to a quarter of professional truck drivers in the eastern federal states do not hold a German passport, while this figure is nearly 20 percent among chefs and approximately a quarter among employed doctors. International workers also hold a considerable share of positions in nursing care, automotive engineering, and other sectors facing skilled labor shortages. Semsarha warned that industries such as logistics, the healthcare sector, and gastronomy would come under severe pressure if migration dropped or if internal migration increased.
This challenging situation is hitting Eastern Germany at an particularly disadvantageous time. Cohorts born during historically high birth years are retiring from the workforce, and since 2023, more people from Eastern Germany have begun migrating westward. Furthermore, the proportion of skilled immigrants in the eastern federal states remains low compared to the national average.
The developmental trends vary regionally. Despite immigration, the number of skilled workers subject to social security has decreased in Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia by 6,448 and 12,207 people, respectively. Conversely, in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Brandenburg, while the number of German skilled workers has fallen, foreign employees not only covered this decline but also contributed to overall employment growth. Saxony is the sole eastern federal state where both the number of German and foreign skilled workers have increased.
Researchers also suggest that the actual importance of international skilled workers may be greater than official statistics indicate. Naturalized employees are logged as German in labor market data. Globally, approximately 1.8 million people were granted German citizenship between 2015 and 2025 alone.
For the eastern states, the question is not just how to attract more skilled workers, but also what motivates them to stay long-term. As the length of residence increases, the societal climate becomes a more important factor. Experiences of discrimination and the local political situation are crucial determinants of whether people choose to stay, and whether they choose to come to Germany at all. Semsarha added that this is also relevant for recruiting new workers, noting, “Germany is engaged in an international competition for skilled labor, and those who follow the situation here closely.”
To attract and retain international employees, IW researchers see potential in removing bureaucratic barriers. Creating an efficient “Work-and-Stay Agency,” for example, could help simplify procedures. Concurrently, the researchers emphasize the importance of global openness and a positive political climate. The analysis points out that the upcoming state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern represent “central decision points.”
In Saxony-Anhalt, a new state parliament is scheduled to be elected on Sunday. During the campaign, the AfD, among other activities, mobilizes against the immigration of skilled foreign workers, promoting instead a greater reliance on domestic labor.
