European security agencies anticipate a rise in Russian sabotage activities in the coming months. This assessment comes from reports by the German publication “Welt am Sonntag” and the British “Telegraph,” both citing confidential conversations with security authorities. A senior NATO representative stated that the alliance expects Moscow to adopt a more aggressive communication strategy and expand the scope of hybrid attacks across Europe. Simultaneously, the pressure on Russia is reportedly at an exceptionally high level-possibly the highest ever during the war, and certainly the highest point in Vladimir Putin’s tenure in Russia.
German government analysts also project an escalation in these types of attacks. For example, the failed drone strike targeting Antonov aircraft at Leipzig/Halle airport in August is viewed as a sign of a developing trend. According to German authorities, the GRU, the Russian military intelligence service, is deemed the primary driver behind the attacks ordered by the Kremlin. These operations aim to weaken European support for Ukraine and influence the public debate, with Germany being a particular focus due to its strong backing of Kyiv.
Gerhard Schindler, the former head of the Federal Intelligence Service, informed “Welt am Sonntag” that Russian President Vladimir Putin pursues two central objectives: achieving a military victory in Ukraine and diminishing support for the capital. “Therefore, he will increase both the military pressure on Ukraine and the hybrid pressure on the West,” Schindler stated.
This expectation of increased Russian sabotage and terror attacks was echoed by Roderich Kiesewetter, a CDU foreign policy politician. Kiesewetter noted that Russia would willingly incur civilian casualties during these actions. He emphasized that the attacks carry a clear military component, asserting, “Russia sees itself at war with NATO, the EU, and us.” Expanding on this, Robin Wagener, a member of the Green party and deputy member of the defense committee, warned that state terrorism by Russia against EU members is intended to erode the defense will of both Ukraine and the EU. Wagener also forecasts a further escalation of the “shadow war,” cautioning against a broad spectrum of potential attacks ranging from cyberattacks and sabotage to assassination attempts.
In response to the allegations presented by “Welt am Sonntag,” the Russian embassy dismissed the claims, labeling them “baseless accusations” regarding any alleged Russian involvement in “sabotage activities.”
