The European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) has issued a warning regarding the risk of arms smuggling from Ukraine into Europe, particularly should a ceasefire or period of peace take hold. According to Frontex Deputy Director Lars Gerdes, this risk is considered “high”.
Gerdes explained that once hostilities cease, significant stockpiles of weapons, ammunition, and explosives could remain within the country. Given the concurrent existence of people facing financial difficulties, he warned that such a situation could lead to large-scale arms smuggling-a scenario that could pose a serious security problem for Europe. He was particularly concerned about the potential for military hardware to fall into the hands of criminal networks or terrorist groups.
While drawing a comparison to the developments seen after the Yugoslav Wars, Gerdes cautioned that the current scenario involves weapons of a newer generation. In response to the heightened threat, the agency is already deploying increased resources along Ukraine’s western borders to monitor the situation closely. This warning comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin recently stated that the war against Ukraine was “nearing an end”.
Beyond the direct conflict zone, Frontex is also monitoring the exploitation of migration routes by state actors, citing examples from Belarus and Russia. Gerdes also highlighted the difficulty of distinguishing voluntary movements, noting the journey people attempt from Libya towards Europe. He expressed skepticism about these groups acting purely out of free will or possessing the financial means to manage their travel. He pointed to a strong increase in arrivals at the Greek island of Crete as evidence of this pattern, concluding with a warning that “the next crisis will come”.
