According to polling researcher Roberto Heinrich, the AfD remains capable of attracting additional voters, even despite its currently high polling numbers.
In interviews with the “Handelsblatt”, a Demoscope from the Infratest Institute noted that the AfD has established a large, solid voter base. These supporters are highly committed to the party, showing strong loyalty reflected in their attribution of competence and when evaluating the party itself. Simultaneously, they tend to exclude other political parties from consideration as viable options.
Heinrich explains that this deep bond is why the party has maintained such high ratings over the past months. While this stability keeps the AfD at a high polling level, he also notes that this does not rule out further growth. He cautions that the size of any additional potential voter pool depends not solely on the upcoming state elections. Rather, the key factors are how the overall political situation develops, the evolving thematic agenda, and what strategies various political competitors adopt when dealing with the AfD. The elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, in particular, are expected to have limited impact.
Nevertheless, a clear success in the state elections could provide a noticeable boost. Heinrich stated that a high level of support for the AfD during the fall state elections-accompanied by clear leads over its competitors-would signal an increase in the party’s political relevance and generally lead to an overall elevation of its status.
