According to a new survey conducted by Insa, the AfD has climbed to a record 42% in Saxony. This represents a seven percentage point increase compared to June of last year. This poll is noteworthy because major polling institutes have not released similar results for Saxony for nearly a year.
In contrast, the CDU, under Minister-President Michael Kretschmer, has declined by five percentage points, settling at 21%. Other parties also saw shifts: the BSW lost four points to reach seven%, while the SPD and Greens both maintained 6%. The Linke achieved 9%, and sundry parties combined for 9%.
The poll also provided deep insights into voter potential. Nearly half of the voters in Saxony (49%) have either previously voted for the AfD or stated they would consider it. Furthermore, only 39% categorically rule out an AfD vote, a figure the institute noted had never been measured this way previously. The survey suggests the CDU’s maximum potential support has dropped to only 36%, meaning nearly one in two potential CDU voters (52%) are currently inclined toward the AfD.
Regarding a potential direct election for Minister-President, Michael Kretschmer (CDU) would be clearly challenged by AfD leader Jörg Urban. The poll revealed that 44% would vote for Kretschmer, compared to 20% for Urban, with 22% undecided or favoring neither. The report added that younger voters and core supporters of the CDU, SPD, Greens, and Linke remain loyal to the current Minister-President. While 35% of voters are satisfied or somewhat satisfied, a significant 58% reported being dissatisfied or very dissatisfied.
Saxony’s mood regarding the federal government was notably negative. Only 12% of respondents were satisfied, while 85% were dissatisfied. Moreover, 76% reported a decrease in their trust in Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s (CDU) ability to govern, with only 4% seeing any improvement.
The Insa survey data was collected between May 13th and May 20th among 1,000 people, commissioned by the controversial portal “Nius” headed by former Bild editor Julian Reichelt.
