The working group for tax estimates has significantly raised its initial projections for the coming years. However, the published Autumn Tax Estimates revealed on Thursday show that the projected tax revenues from the federal, state, and local levels for the current year, 2026, have been reduced by approximately one billion euros.
While expectations for certain tax types-specifically those related to states, municipalities, and the EU-were raised, federal tax revenue alone is expected to be three billion euros lower in 2026 than initially forecast in the spring.
Despite this mixed outlook for 2026, projections for the subsequent years have been markedly boosted. For the following years, authorities are now forecasting an increase of over ten billion euros each year. Cumulatively, the forecast for all tax types between 2026 and 2030 has been raised by more than 43 billion euros.
Federal Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD) stated that the government remains “robust” upon presenting the figures. Nevertheless, he noted that even with the increased forecasts for 2027, “no new budgetary leeway” is gained, although, conversely, there are no new deficits that need to be covered. He added that the ministry maintains a clear commitment to continuing consolidation within the federal budget to build necessary future maneuverability.
These estimates are based on the overall economic indicators presented in the federal government’s Autumn Projection. The growth expectations for the current year were significantly upgraded compared to the spring projection. The Finance Ministry attributed this positive adjustment primarily to a “more dynamic overall economic development in the first half of the year than was expected in the spring, particularly given the rising energy prices.” This more favorable economic trend is largely credited to higher exports, driven by the global AI boom, which has stimulated increased demand.
