A new study indicates that the public holds significantly more positive views toward climate protection measures than many political decision-makers assume. The research results, conducted by scientists from Ruhr University Bochum and Leuphana University Lüneburg, are scheduled for publication in the journal “Communications Earth & Environment.”
Wilhelm Hofmann of Ruhr University Bochum explained that “politicians systematically underestimate public approval for climate protection measures-and particularly underestimate support for the measures that are considered most effective according to scientific knowledge.”
The researchers reached out to over 6,000 actively engaged politicians via their professional email addresses for the investigation. Ultimately, around 1,600 individuals or political offices participated in the study. The scientists then compared these political assessments with the actual attitudes of more than 2,000 citizens gathered from two independent population samples.
Timur Sevincer, associate professor at Leuphana University Lüneburg, stated that “many political decision-makers seem to believe that the public is far more skeptical about climate protection than they actually are. Our data suggests that policymakers are partially and significantly underestimating societal support for effective climate policy.”
To illustrate this gap, policymakers estimated that only about 18 percent of the public would be willing to contribute one percent of their income monthly toward more effective climate protection. The reality, according to the study, was closer to 48 percent. The research found that nearly one in two Germans are prepared to make a small contribution from their personal income, despite many political decision-makers expecting support levels to be even lower.
The strongest discrepancies in judgment occurred regarding measures deemed particularly effective by experts in combating climate change. While informational campaigns were slightly overestimated in some instances, respondents significantly underestimated public backing for laws, regulations, and financial contributions. Wilhelm Hofmann noted, “We did not find the largest perception gap in the question of whether climate change is a problem. It showed up where people would actually make a personal contribution or support more ambitious legislation-precisely there, in the willingness to cooperate, politicians underestimated support considerably.”
The public also underestimates support for climate protection to some extent-a known psychological phenomenon. However, the misjudgment made by politicians was found to be even greater than the misjudgments made by the citizens themselves. “This can easily create the impression that ambitious climate policy is politically riskier than it actually is,” said Sevincer.
This perception gap was visible across nearly the entire political spectrum. Although left-leaning parties underestimated support for more ambitious policies slightly less than conservative or right-wing parties, the researchers observed the central tendency in virtually all political factions. “The finding is not limited to individual parties,” Hofmann stated. “The underestimation of public support for effective climate policy is a remarkably widespread phenomenon.”
Prior research indicates that politicians tailor their behavior not only to their own beliefs but also to what they perceive as their constituents’ opinions. When this perception is biased, it can influence political decisions. The study’s authors concluded that providing better information about true public attitudes could help overcome political roadblocks in the fight against climate change. Sevincer emphasized, “The biggest hurdle for some climate protection measures might not be a lack of support. The bigger hurdle could be the false assumption that such support is missing.”
