Following the state elections, the Union (CDU/CSU) is experiencing a decline in national public approval. The latest “Sonntagstrend” poll, conducted weekly by the opinion research institute Insa for “Bild am Sonntag,” shows that the CDU/CSU has fallen one percentage point to 19%. This figure marks the lowest measurement for the Union in the current legislative period. Notably, the gap between the Union and the AfD has widened to ten percentage points, with the AfD maintaining its position at 29%.
Meanwhile, the SPD and the Green Party both managed to gain one percentage point. The SPD now holds 14%, while the Greens are at 15%. Conversely, Die Linke lost one point, reaching 10%. Combined, the SPD, Greens, and Left now total 39%, representing the highest cumulative figure for this three-party alignment this legislative period.
The FDP lost one percentage point and would fail to cross the parliamentary threshold with 4%, as would the BSW, which remained stable at 3%. The other parties collectively accounted for 6% (a gain of 1 point). In total, the parties that currently fail to hit the five-percent barrier make up 13% of the votes. This distribution suggests that a parliamentary majority is mathematically achievable with roughly 44% of the vote.
The opinion research institute Insa surveyed a total of 1,203 individuals for the “Bild am Sonntag” poll between September 21st and September 25th.
