The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) projects that the El Niño weather pattern will return this summer. According to the WMO, the probability of an El Niño event occurring between June and August 2026 is 80 percent. Furthermore, there is a 90 percent or higher probability that the event will persist until at least November. While there remains uncertainty regarding the precise timing and strength of the El Niño peak, most prognostic models suggest it will be at least moderate, and potentially even strong.
The WMO noted that the sea surface temperature in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific-which serves as the monitoring reference-reached El Niño thresholds between late April and mid-May. These surface anomalies are fueled by unusually warm underwater conditions in the tropical Pacific. The subsurface temperatures are more than 6 degrees Celsius above average, forming a significant heat reservoir that contributes to the observed surface warming. The Southern Oscillation Index, which reflects the atmospheric component of El Niño, is also consistent with the developing El Niño conditions.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned that El Niño is projected to occur in the coming months with 90 percent certainty. He urged the world to view this as an urgent climate warning, calling for action against climate change, including ending reliance on fossil fuels and accelerating the transition to renewable energy. The WMO plans to closely monitor the conditions in the coming months to provide vital information to governmental decision-makers, humanitarian organizations, and climate-sensitive sectors.
El Niño is defined as the occurrence of unusual, non-cyclical, and altered ocean currents within the oceanographic-meteorological system. This phenomenon typically happens at irregular intervals, averaging every four years, and its effects can include both droughts and heavy rainfall. Moreover, it raises the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that the most recent El Niño event in 2023-2024 was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to the temperature records seen globally in 2024.
