The OECD finds that the resilience of the world economy is being strained by the conflict in the Middle East, which is creating new inflationary pressure and significant uncertainties. In its mid‑term review of global business published on Thursday, the organisation maintained a forecast of 2.9 % global growth for 2026 but lowered the 2027 projection from 3.1 % to 3.0 %. Both predictions are heavily contingent on how the conflict unfolds.
The energy shock stemming from the Middle‑East crisis is expected to weaken global growth and push inflation higher. In the United States, GDP is projected to grow 2.0 % in 2026 and slow to 1.7 % in 2027. The eurozone is seen expanding at 0.8 % in 2026 and 1.2 % in 2027. China’s growth is expected to slow to 4.4 % in 2026 and 4.3 % in 2027.
Germany’s economy is expected to rise modestly: 0.8 % growth in 2026 and 1.5 % in 2027.
