Germany’s working‑force supply is projected to remain almost unchanged until 2045, falling only modestly by about 0.5 % to roughly 43.3 million people, according to a new employment forecast from the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban and Spatial Development (BBSR).
At the same time regional gaps widen. In 58 of the 96 planning regions, the number of employed people will shrink-especially in structurally weaker, largely eastern areas such as Altmark, Anhalt‑Bitterfeld‑Wittenberg, and Nordthüringen, where declines of at least 20 % are expected. Conversely, more robust metropolitan areas like Hamburg and Munich are set to grow by more than 9 %, while Berlin is forecast to rise by about 15 %.
In fast‑growing regions the increase is driven mainly by in‑migration and a higher participation rate among people of working age. In contrast, less competitive regions lose workers because too few young people enter the labor market to replace those who retire. Immigration and higher participation rates alone cannot offset these losses.
Policy levers therefore lie mainly in affecting migration flows and boosting employment participation. Continued and advanced training becomes increasingly important to preserve current skills as the overall workforce shrinks and fewer young people enter the market. The projection draws on BBSR’s latest population forecast and the micro‑census data from the Federal and State statistical offices.
