A significant portion of high-level representatives from large manufacturing companies perceives considerable risks for German industry due to current geopolitical conflicts and trade disputes. This finding comes from a survey conducted by the Allensbach Institute for Demographics, which polled key decision-makers from 154 German manufacturing firms employing over 500 people or generating at least 100 million euros in revenue, as reported by Der Spiegel.
More than half of these top executives view their own companies as facing large or very large risks arising from potential disruptions to transport routes or shortages in raw materials and intermediate goods. Despite this high-risk outlook, over 80 percent rated their company’s resilience as either rather high or very high. This apparent contradiction, according to the lobbying association, is not a conflict of opinion but rather a reflection of active corporate effort. Peter Leibinger, President of the BDI, explained that most companies have made extensive efforts to diversify their supply chains and target markets, thereby reducing their vulnerability as much as possible. However, companies noted that they have no influence over geopolitical threats, such as the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to make them feel vulnerable.
Regarding the role of the government, Leibinger emphasized that policymakers need to create and share situational reports with businesses and coordinate crisis management structures and processes, particularly the Federal Chancellery and the Ministry for Economic Affairs. Companies reported lacking a unified strategy to enhance the overall economic resilience of the location. As an example of a successful model, they cited Japan, which has systematically reduced its dependence on China for certain raw materials and intermediate products over many years. The majority of respondents also criticized the lack of early warning systems or timely crisis information available to businesses in Germany.
On the other hand, industry representatives praised the state in certain areas. They noted that the government does excellent work when concluding international partnerships or free trade agreements. Furthermore, cooperation with public bodies generally functions well to very well, with only 14 percent rating it as less effective. Additionally, roughly a third of the surveyed companies benefits from funding provided through national or European programs designed to enhance their own economic resilience.
