Analyses conducted by the AOK Scientific Institute (WIdO) in collaboration with the Universities of Trier, Rostock, and Cologne project that the number of people suffering from dementia in Germany could rise to 2.1 million by 2060. This analysis was announced by the University of Trier on Monday. Currently, approximately 1.3 million people in the Federal Republic are affected by the disease.
The forecast is based on a novel simulation method used by the Mikrosim research group, which is funded by the German Research Foundation. Ralf Münnich, who leads the group from the University of Trier’s Economic and Social Statistics department, stated that the models allow for predictions on all conceivable demographic questions, down to the household level. The researchers enhanced their models by incorporating epidemiological data from the AOK Scientific Institute (WIdO).
The study reveals a distinct disparity between urban and rural areas. While the percentage of dementia cases in Munich is estimated at 1.7 percent for 2060, this figure reaches 6.2 percent in the Elbe-Elster district of Brandenburg. The burden on working individuals is also increasing: in 2020, only 2.6 individuals with dementia were recorded per 100 employed workers, but this number could rise to 4.7 in the worst-case scenario for 2060, and nearly 21 in certain districts. According to the researchers, these are conservative estimates, representing the lower bound of expected case numbers. However, through preventive measures, such as managing high blood pressure and diabetes, the number of cases could be stabilized at 1.3 to 1.5 million.
