A study released by the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB) on Wednesday revealed that the desire for children in Germany has decreased for the first time in many years, coinciding with rising concerns about future global crises.
The birth rate in the European Union has fallen significantly, dropping from 1.53 children per woman in 2021 to 1.34 in 2024-the lowest value since the EU’s founding. Similarly, in Germany, the rate declined from 1.58 to 1.35 children over the same period, placing the nation in the middle of the European pack. This trend continues to have far-reaching consequences for demographics: sustained low birth rates mean that future generations will be significantly smaller, thereby altering the ratio between older and younger age groups. This structural shift is particularly relevant for the future of the working population and the pension system.
Despite the decline in birth rates, young adults still express a desire for more children than the actual birth statistics reflect. According to the FReDA family demographic panel, women average a desire for 1.7 children, while men wish for about 1.6. Martin Bujard, Research Director at BiB, explained that the postponement of family planning often leads to unfulfilled desires for children. The optimal number of children people consider desirable remains constant at an average of 2.2. Because of the declining birth rate, the gap between the ideally viewed and the actually realized family size has widened-a phenomenon the researchers term the “Fertility Gap.” Bujard noted that “many people are having fewer children than their actual family ideal dictates.”
Concerns about the future, particularly regarding wars and potential democratic decline, are influencing family planning. Miriam Trübner, a research associate at BiB, stated that expectations about the societal future are directly linked to fertility desires. Furthermore, local living conditions, such as affordable housing and economic prospects, also play a major role. She added that robust regional public services could help young people realize their family goals in a timely manner.
