In a recent poll conducted by Infratest for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) expanded its lead over the Social Democratic Party (SPD). This snapshot of public opinion comes from a survey conducted by Infratest, commissioned by ARD, between Monday and Wednesday this week, interviewing 1,556 eligible voters.
If an election were to take place this coming Sunday, the SPD currently holds 33 percent of the vote (an increase of one point from the previous week, compared to 39.6% in 2021). The AfD, meanwhile, registers 38 percent (+3 points), significantly surpassing its 16.7% result in 2021.
Other parties show mixed results. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is projected at seven percent (-1 point, down from 13.3% in 2021), the Left party stands at nine percent (-2 points, down from 9.9% in 2021), and the Greens hold stable at five percent (+/-0 points, compared to 6.3% in 2021). The BSW, contesting the state election for the first time in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, remains at four percent, just below the threshold for parliamentary representation, matching the previous week’s figure. All other parties combine for four percent, including the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which polled at 5.8% in 2021.
ARD emphasized that this survey is not a definitive forecast but rather a measurement of the current political mood during the week. The “Sunday question” reflects present voting inclinations, not actual voting behavior, offering only a partial mid-term view of the electorate’s thought process, which will only be finalized on election Sunday. ARD added that making concrete conclusions about the election outcome is limited, noting that many voters decided close to the election date, and the final phase of the campaign, which targets indecisive and tactical voters, holds considerable importance.
Regarding voter intentions, 10 percent of the surveyed eligible voters stated they could still change their party preference before election day. However, three out of four voters (74 percent) indicated that their voting decision is already set. Furthermore, one in six voters (16 percent) either intend not to vote or have not expressed any preference for a particular party.
When asked to choose between the top candidates for the regional government, 59 percent of the electorate favors the incumbent Minister-President, Manuela Schwesig (SPD), though this represents a slight decrease of one point from the previous week. The challenger, Leif-Erik Holm (AfD), garnered 28 percent (+3 points). Thirteen percent responded “don’t know” or did not provide an answer (-2 points).
On the satisfaction level with job performance, a majority of respondents (58 percent) are either very satisfied or satisfied with Minister-President Manuela Schwesig’s work; 36 percent are less or not satisfied. The AfD candidate, Leif-Erik Holm, rates at 27 percent satisfaction and 37 percent dissatisfaction. Simone Oldenburg (Left), the deputy Minister-President and Education Minister, received 27 percent satisfaction and 36 percent dissatisfaction. Daniel Peters (CDU) secured 13 percent satisfaction and 28 percent dissatisfaction. Claudia Müller (Greens) was judged by 10 percent of respondents as satisfied and 20 percent as dissatisfied. In both the cases of Peters and Müller, a majority stated that they do not know or are unable to judge the politician.
Finally, in the question of which party should lead the next state government, the SPD is preferred by a majority: 55 percent would choose the Social Democrats (-1 point from the previous week), while one in three (32 percent) would choose the AfD (+1 point). Thirteen percent did not specify or were undecided. Moreover, majorities of supporters from the Greens (94 percent), the Left (92 percent), and the CDU (75 percent) all stated they favor a government led by the SPD.
