According to the Copernicus EU Climate Change Service, global warming is projected to almost certainly surpass the 1.5-degree mark above pre-industrial times in 2026. This would mark the second calendar year, following 2024, in which this critical threshold is breached. However, the official success of the goal is only considered achieved when the average temperature over several years exceeds 1.5 degrees. There is an estimated 80% probability that 2026 will become the world’s second warmest year on record, and the four-year average spanning 2023 through 2026 is also forecast to be above 1.5 degrees.
Regarding recent conditions, the global average temperature reached a new monthly high in October 2026. Temperatures across Europe were also above average, particularly in Fennoscandia and Eastern Europe. Concurrently, unusually high sea temperatures persisted in the tropical Pacific, a situation attributed to intensifying El Niño conditions.
