The European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) has issued a warning regarding a developing migration hot spot in the Mediterranean. An internal risk analysis suggests that crossings on the Libya-Crete route have tripled in 2025, a report detailed by “Welt am Sonntag”. Authorities caution that this corridor is expected to continue coming under intense pressure. To address this, Frontex has recommended that the EU pursue an agreement with Libya and introduce stronger deterrent measures.
Beyond migration, the agency’s strategic outlook for 2026 and 2027 highlights several rising threats, including the geopolitical exploitation of migration flows and a significant surge in arms and drug smuggling across Europe’s outer borders. Frontex also points to growing dangers related to organized smuggling networks. Specifically, cocaine is increasingly entering Europe using semi-submersible vessels, while Morocco is reportedly using drones more frequently for drug transport operations.
Meanwhile, security agencies are closely monitoring the situation in Ukraine. Frontex warns that if a ceasefire or demobilization takes place, the risk of material spillover into Europe-specifically concerning weapons, ammunition, and explosives-will increase sharply.
