According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global supply of oil and gas is expected to remain critical for months due to the conflict involving Iran. Fatih Birol, the head of the IEA, told the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung” that he sees “no plausible way for the energy markets to normalize before 2027.” Birol, a respected global expert who coordinates the recent release of strategic oil reserves, recently held meetings with figures such as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU), and is scheduled to meet with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen this week.
When questioned about whether Europeans will safely navigate the winter, Birol stated, “I am not certain,” noting that gas imports from the Gulf states remain interrupted. He added that Europe’s desire to decouple from Russian oil and gas does not ease the situation. According to Birol, the market for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) will intensify, creating strong competition between Asian buyers like Japan, Korea, and China, and European buyers, which will inevitably drive up prices. Complicating matters further are the low natural gas storage levels across Europe.
The IEA chief expressed hope that the winter will not be excessively severe, but maintained that he would not ease the restrictions on Russian gas imports. He stressed that Europeans should not fall back into Russian dependency. His key recommendation is to “generate as much electricity as possible.” Birol pointed out that this would be simpler if the phase-out of nuclear power were not occurring. He questioned the method of decommissioning perfectly functioning nuclear power plants while simultaneously attempting to compensate for their loss by sourcing green hydrogen from Namibia, citing the ideals of Immanuel Kant. In the short term, he also emphasized the importance of maximizing domestic oil and gas production.
The IEA chief views the growing global interest in nuclear energy positively, noting that he predicted a nuclear resurgence three years prior, and that this is now happening. He was also pleased to see the massive growth observed in renewable energy sources, electric vehicles, and batteries. “For the first time in years, I see that measures to secure energy supply are closely linked to the fight against climate change,” Birol noted. He concluded that the combination of renewable energy, electric vehicles, batteries, and nuclear power represents the correct answer to the high costs of oil and gas.
