According to opinion researcher Manfred Güllner, it is “quite possible” that the AfD could secure an absolute majority in the upcoming elections in Saxony-Anhalt. Güllner stated to the “Tagesspiegel” that while only 24 percent of voters in the West envision supporting the party, this figure rises to 41 percent in the East.
However, Güllner cautioned that roughly 60 percent of people from East Germany are unwilling to vote for the AfD. He suggested that mobilizing middle-ground voters offers a potential path to preventing the AfD from gaining an absolute mandate. The founder of the polling institute Forsa believes that parties in the middle of the political spectrum in Saxony-Anhalt must motivate these voters to stop the AfD’s momentum. He added that such an AfD victory would only be possible if both the CDU and SPD were significantly weak; the AfD alone would not be enough.
Currently, Güllner indicated that 20 percent of all voters in Germany plan to vote for the AfD, with another eight percent considering it. Despite the ongoing frustration with the federal government over several weeks, this number has not increased. Consequently, the AfD may have now reached a significant portion of its potential.
In contrast, Güllner argues that both the CDU and SPD are underutilizing their respective voter bases. He points out that millions of voters are inherently aligned with the CDU or SPD but are deterred by the current substance or personnel presented by these parties. Nevertheless, these voters remain longing for a CDU or SPD that resembled their previous forms.
Regarding the SPD, the Forsa founder noted that the party has a potential base of 46 percent of all voters. He also remarked that very few Germans wish for the SPD to disappear, as nearly every second person still respects the venerable institution. Millions would ideally want to vote for the SPD, but structural issues-specifically program or personal appeal-prevent them from doing so. Güllner concluded by suggesting that the SPD’s long campaigns for the minimum wage and, to some extent, for the citizen allowance have alienated millions of people in regular jobs, particularly within industry, ultimately driving them away from the party.
