A new UN report published on Wednesday indicates that global warming is increasingly likely to surpass the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels. If current policies remain unchanged, the warming could reach 2.8°C this century and continue to rise afterward. Although the report suggests that implementing all Nationally Determined Contributions and maintaining similar efforts could limit warming to 2.6°C, these forecasts are less optimistic than last year’s projections, primarily due to the United States withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions. Even under the most optimistic scenarios, global warming is predicted to peak at only 2.1°C this century.
According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), drastic and immediate cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are necessary to minimize these excesses and ensure that temperatures return to 1.5°C by the close of the century. The Emissions Gap Report 2026 outlines a scenario where warming is limited to between 1.7 and 1.8°C by the middle of the century, before falling back to or below 1.5°C by 2100.
Achieving this goal requires massive global emissions reductions: targeted cuts of 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040, compared to 2025 levels. However, current political commitments are insufficient, as the full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions would only result in a reduction of five to eight percent by 2030 and eleven to 15 percent by 2035.
“Every additional fraction of a degree and every extra year of warming past 1.5°C intensifies climate risks and impacts, including the deadly floods, heatwaves, and wildfires affecting many nations this year,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “Therefore, we must do everything possible to minimize the maximum warming level and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century. And that is possible.”
