According to the 2026 Household Forecast by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the number of private households in Germany is projected to decrease by 2050 under scenarios involving moderate development of births, life expectancy, and migration, or if the population remains relatively aged. Under these forecast variables, the current 41.8 million households in 2024 are expected to fall to between 39.7 and 40.9 million in 2050. This downward trend would reverse the increase in private households observed since German reunification in 1990. However, if the population remains relatively young-meaning a significant rise in the birth rate combined with high net immigration-the number of private households is projected to remain stable, increasing slightly by one percent compared to 2024 levels.
The 2026 forecast lays out the development of private households by 2050 based on current demographic structures. For the first time, the forecast considers three distinct scenarios for future population development. The ‘medium’ assumption accounts only for moderate changes in key demographic factors: birth frequency, life expectancy, and migration. The ‘relatively aged population’ scenario assumes persistently low birth rates, a strong increase in life expectancy, and a low net migration balance. Conversely, the ‘relatively young population’ scenario relies on a significantly rising birth rate, a modest increase in life expectancy, and high net immigration.
One-person households are already the largest category of private households today. Under the new forecast, their numbers are predicted to rise from 17.9 million in 2024 to between 18.5 million (under the relatively aged scenario) and 19.2 million (under the relatively young scenario) by 2050. Consequently, between 23 and 24 percent of the population will be living alone in private households (compared to 21 percent in 2024). While the number of single-person households among those aged 20 to under 40 is expected to decline-due partly to population decreases and the tendency for later family formation-changes in the 40- to under 60-year-old groups vary depending on the forecasting variable. For individuals aged 60 and older, all three scenarios project an increase in the number of single-person households; this growth is particularly pronounced for those aged 60 to under 70 and for the very elderly (aged 80 and over).
The number of two-person households, which currently stands at approximately 13.6 million in 2024, three-person households (4.8 million), and four-person households (3.9 million) is projected to decrease by 2050 under all three scenarios as current trends in household composition continue. In contrast, the number of households with five or more people (1.6 million in 2024) is expected to grow by 3 percent under the assumption of a relatively young population.
Regional differences in household development are largely determined by the current age structure and future population trends across different regional groupings (West German and East German plains states, and city-states). Whether the total number of private households rises, stagnates, or falls by 2050 differs significantly between West German plains states and city-states depending on which forecasting variable is used. In East German plains states, however, the number of private households is projected to decrease under all three specified variables. This decline would be most severe under the relatively aged population scenario, where East German plains states are expected to have twelve percent fewer private households in 2050 compared to 2024.
