Less than a week before the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, a majority of Germans expressed concern over the stability of democracy should the AfD achieve an absolute majority of mandates there. This finding comes from the current “Spiegel” Ipsos political monitor. Specifically, 41 percent of respondents fully agreed that “it is a danger to German democracy if the AfD comes into government in Saxony-Anhalt,” while another 12 percent agreed rather.
The Ipsos institute conducted the survey nationwide, interviewing approximately 2,100 people between August 26th and 31st, on behalf of Spiegel.
The upcoming election in Saxony-Anhalt will determine a new state parliament. In Magdeburg, the AfD may achieve a ministerial president for the first time in its history, based on current polls. Currently, the government is a coalition consisting of the CDU, SPD, and FDP.
Slight differences in concern were observed between men and women regarding a potential AfD majority. Furthermore, there is a noticeable regional disparity: 57 percent of people in the former West German states expressed these concerns, compared to only 38 percent of those in the former East German states who fully or rather agreed with the statement.
Regarding potential leadership changes, should AfD top candidate Ulrich Siegmund succeed State Premier Sven Schulze (CDU), a clear majority of Germans supports personal consequences for Chancellor and CDU leader Friedrich Merz. Forty-eight percent of respondents agreed with the statement “In the case of a defeat, Friedrich Merz should step down as Chancellor/Party Leader,” with 12 percent agreeing rather.
The debate also frequently touches on whether the Union should abandon its “firewall” policy concerning the AfD. A narrow majority of Germans opposes the CDU moving closer to the AfD. Specifically, 43 percent of respondents strongly disagreed with the statement, “The CDU should open up to cooperation with the AfD,” and 8 percent disagreed rather.
The outlook is more ambiguous concerning a potential rapprochement between the CDU and the Left party. Forty percent of respondents strongly or rather disagreed with the statement, “The CDU should open up to cooperation with the Left,” while 39 percent agreed fully or rather.
Further concerns were registered among Germans regarding migrants in the event of an AfD victory. 43 percent of respondents fully agreed with the statement, “An AfD electoral success would worsen the security situation for people of migration background in Germany,” and 15 percent agreed rather.
The “Spiegel”-Ipsos political monitor also gauged German intentions should a federal election be held next Sunday. Here, the AfD leads clearly with 27 percent. Twenty-one percent of respondents would vote for the Union parties, 15 percent for the Greens, 13 percent for the Left party, and 12 percent for the SPD. The FDP, which is not currently represented in the Bundestag, stands at five percent, while the extra-parliamentary BSW receives three percent.
